how to protect the elderly and the frail

In my previous email, I stated that "it is ok for healthy young to get infected with Covid-19". I still believe that, and I hope more people can agree with me. In this email, I would like to talk about how to protect the elderly and the fail.

With time, more researches have been done:
#1 This study "Estimating The Infection Fatality Rate Among Symptomatic COVID-19 Cases In The United States" (https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00455 ) says the IFR-S is 1.3%. Seems it is very low to me. If indeed 96% of infected people do not have symptoms (mentioned in my previous email), then IFR is 0.052% while that for flu in US is 0.017%.

#2 This study "Humoral immune response and prolonged PCR positivity in a cohort of 1343 SARS-CoV 2 patients in the New York City region"
( https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.30.20085613v1 ) says that
#2-1 99.5% infected persons developed antibodies. Herd immunity depends on this.
#2-2 If symptoms develop, they take average 9 days to resolve, and human body takes another 15 days for antibody to be detectable (24 days since symptoms show).
#2-3 After symptoms resolve, viruses can still be detectable for another 28 days. I would assume contagious. This finding suggests that an infected and recovered person should not get close to any elderly and frail for at least 1 month. After 28 days, let's call those recovered as the "fully recovered".

And with time, more facts have been collected:
On May 9, New York times reported that "One-Third of All U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Are Nursing Home Residents or Workers": https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/09/us/coronavirus-cases-nursing-homes-us.html . It says "35% of covid-19 death can be linked to long term care facilities". This percentage is 80% in West Virginia, and 78% in Minnesota. On May 7, The Global And Mail reported that in Quebec this percentage is 80.3% ("2,114 of the 2,631 Quebeckers who died of COVID-19 lived in an elder-care facility" https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-how-quebecs-long-term-care-homes-became-hotbeds-for-the-covid-1/).

We all know that people from underdeveloped countries start to get health problem before they reach 50s. The composition of death counts for Covid-19 in Philippines also confirms this. New York state found that about 90% of death has at least one comorbidity. (https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n#/views/NYS%2dCOVID19%2dTracker/NYSDOHCOVID%2d19Tracker%2dFatalities)
Facts suggest that if the elderly and the frail are not isolated from the rest of society, they would die with Covid-19 with high probabilities. This is what I urged in my previous email which also shows CFR(case fatality rate) and IFR(infection fatality rate) are higher for elderly. And if people have taken actions on this, then their results is different. On March 12, New York state started to impose "New Limits on Visitations to Nursing Homes - Only Medically Necessary Visits Will Be Allowed To Protect Most Vulnerable" (at the time, total state wide confirmed cases is just 325. https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/during-novel-coronavirus-briefing-governor-cuomo-announces-new-mass-gatherings-regulations). By May 9, New York state death counts over 21K with confirmed cases over 335K, while deaths linked to nursing home counts for only 20%. Though still the CFR for 75+ New York City residents is 35%.

I hope governments can put an end on the quarantine policy as the life of the lower class is in difficulty. What the general/enhanced quarantine policy does is to jail/"protect" those healthy young who are not vulnerable to Covid-19. And based on facts collected and the above mentioned researches, we do not need the general/enhanced quarantine policy, instead what we need to do is to advocate that
#1 if you have any health problem, you should isolate yourself from the rest of the society and the rest of your family, otherwise Covid-19 might kill you with high probabilities;
#2 if you are a healthy young, with high probabilities, it will be OK for you to get infected with Covid-19 (96% do not develops symptoms, and even with symptoms, the death rate is very low. Though if symptoms develop, it is not enjoyable). However, if you are cautious, you can always choose to isolated yourself from the rest of the society.
When to terminate the isolation state? It is up to your own choices. You can choose to rejoin the society when 70% or 80% or 90% of the population has been infected.
#3 if you run around(suppose you are healthy), please do not get close to the elderly and the frail as you might infect them with viruses you are carrying. As you are not vulnerable to those viruses, but those viruses could be deadly for the elderly and the frail. If you are confirmed that you got infected, then you should not get close to the elderly and the frail within 1 month.
#4 public services should be encouraged to be served by those "fully recovered" people (confirmed infection and with no symptoms for at least 28 days).
#5 maybe the government should impose rules on employers such as employers should not terminate employment if any of their employees chooses to isolate themselves from the rest of the society till October 2020.

Thank you for reading. Comments are appreciated.

What are you talking about

able_1127 发表于 2020-5-11 21:57
What are you talking about

if you really care, you would have found what I had posted, then you would know what I was talking about.

please stop creating and spreading panic: https://www.flw.ph/thread-967306-1-1.html
It is OK to get infected with Covid-19 if you are healthy.: https://www.flw.ph/thread-967305-1-1.html
健康年轻人感染新冠病毒是没有关系的: https://www.flw.ph/thread-967318-1-1.html

。。。

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Too long, No one would read it.

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